RBS Retail & Wholesale Conference 2010

Ross Walker, a member of the RBS UK economy team, began the conference by discussing the macroeconomic circumstances that influence the retail and wholesale sectors. Walker acknowledged the unprecedented years of plenty along with the deepest economic downturn since the 1930s, before predicting that the growth in the UK economy in Q4 of 2009 and Q1 of 2010 would continue (albeit at a gradual pace) for the foreseeable future. However, he did cite headwinds that would stand in the way of an unrestrained resurgence for the retail sector.

The UK economy is shedding fulltime jobs, and the fact that CPI inflation exceeds wage inflation means that "people are taking a real terms cut across the economy." There are though, Walker said, causes for optimism: the worst of the recession is behind us and the low interest rates that hold sway at present promote spending.

Looking toward the future it is vital that the UK maintains its triple-A credit rating, while the anticipated rise in VAT and the emergency budget will have far-reaching implications for the sector, and the country as a whole.

Credited with turning around the ailing fortunes of Harvey Nichols, the journalist and broadcaster is perhaps best known for her television series, Mary Queen of Shops. Portas called her keynote presentation Beyond the Binge and focused on the modern era of retail, consumer behaviour and the necessary requirements for survival in this new and changed environment.

Among the themes of Portas' speech were the development of Internet shopping – what effects it did and didn't have – along with the influence of the blogosphere and the readjusted expectations of a new and complex generation of shoppers.

Her latest book, How to Shop with Mary Queen of Shops, is an insider's guide to how to be a better shopper. It goes behind the scenes to show you the tricks of the trade, how to shop more efficiently, when to hit the sales and where to shop according to your 'tribe'.

As well as starring in the BBC series, Mary is founder and creative director of one of London's leading creative communications agencies.

The panel was made up of Peter Williams, Non Executive Director of Asos; Don Henshall, CEO of Farrow and Ball; Neil Saunders, Consulting Director at Verdict and Mary Portas, Retail Advisor, Journalist and Broadcaster. It was ably chaired by Tim Danaher, Editor of Retail Week.

Neil Saunders raised the point that the retail sector, up until recently, had been an easy arena in which to operate – the boom had been funded by the consumer debt that has played a part in the global downturn. However, he said, there are further difficulties for retailers – especially those away from large shopping centres – as the Internet reduces footfall and supermarkets account for more and more non-food items.

But, noted Peter Williams, these problems could certainly result in conditions that will create opportunities for new entrants and spur on a wave of innovation and renewal.

It was also agreed that different consumers have different needs and tastes in a more marked way than ever before. Plainly, it is up to retailers to identify these needs and satisfy them.

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